Quotations

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Ian Shepherdson Quotes

«This report is much stronger than it first appears.»
«Claims are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate; these data suggest the rate will be nudging 4% by mid-summer.»
«If claims remain at their current level, we could expect the unemployment rate to be down to 4 percent or so by mid-summer.»
«This is a huge report.»
«The new Fed Chairman clearly expects to have to raise rates a bit further, but the extent of the tightening is dependent on the relative performance of the labor and housing markets.»
«It's looking more likely ... that we're going to get a sharp contraction.»
«This hugely strong report will doubtless be cited as evidence that the housing market is not slowing. However, the extremely warm January weather surely distorted these data, just as it boosted retail sales and depressed industrial production.»
«The Chicago PMI has been very volatile over the past couple of years, probably as a result of the tribulations of the auto industry. As a result it has become a less reliable indicator of movements in the national ISM and the January dip does not necessarily mean the ISM will follow suit.»
«If February is broadly similar, a March 28 rate hike is assured. The May meeting's risk is rising.»
«The Chicago survey is very susceptible to changes in conditions in the auto industry, where activity has been very volatile in recent months.»